Wow, how are we already 4 weeks in?! Last week I went 6-4 so I’m inching up in win percentage. This week, though, I can feel it. Coming at you, 10 picks to show you how brilliant* I am and how much** I know about college football.
Cincinnati +5.5 at Miami
I like the cover here because I really like how Kaaya is playing and I like how Miami has looked at times this season. I think Cincinnati is good in its own little bubble, but I see that bubble bursting against the team from South Florida. You lay less than a touchdown by taking the favorite on the road. Take the U.
Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee (Under 52.5)
I like the under play on Vanderbilt–I have all season. Mason’s defense is tough as nails and is coupled with hot garbage as Vanderbilt’s offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if MTSU wins this game, but I think the safe bet is the under. Vandy is too good on defense and too bad on offense for me to talk myself into an Over here.
Texas Tech +15 at Baylor
This feels like stealing. Kingsbury’s team has played great, close football all year and Baylor has yet to be tested. I think the scoring is up in this game and I don’t think TTU gets beat by over two touchdowns. I won’t pick the Raiders to win, but nothing shocks me in the Big XII anymore.
Texas +14.5 at TCU
The Longhorns’ play belies their record. Similar to the rationale for Texas Tech, I just don’t think either team can stop the other. Of course, with Patterson playing guys that still have criminal charges pending, that could tip the balance. I like the points here, but I think Texas is 1-4 after the dust settles.
Texas at TCU (Over 72.5)
Double down on this game. Like I said, I don’t think anyone can stop the other in this game. TCU and Texas Tech broke 84, I have to think this game will clear 72.5.
UNC +8.5 at Georgia Tech
The Jackets have proven that they simply are not ready for primetime. The looked bad against Notre Dame, and miserable against Duke. Additionally, this Carolina team took the Gamecocks to the brink. Tech is playing down to its opponents this year and losing. I can’t justify laying the points in this one. Take the Heels to beat the spread, and maybe Tech outright.
Pittsburgh +5.5 at Virginia Tech
VT hosts a hobbled Pitt team that lost their star running back for the year and VT still isn’t getting at least a touchdown at home because they dropped to ECU. However, I don’t think Pitt could beat ECU. I’m inclined to say that the Hokies run away with it here; but even if they don’t, I like them at home by more than a touchdown.
Alabama +2.5 at Georgia
If this line holds, Bama will be the underdog for the first time in 72 games. Considering it took the Tide 5 turnovers and a fluke to get beat by Mississippi, I am going to take the points. Also, screw CBS for turning what should be the prime night game this weekend into a mid-afternoon delight. Saddle up for story time with Verne and Gary. Take the points here, and maybe the under. I think Bama wins.
Ole Miss -7 at Florida
You never feel great about taking sides against the Gators at night in the Swamp. But here, I think the perception of the Gators is inflated by the erroneous expectations of Tennessee this season. Florida looked atrocious for 50 minutes of their last game and abandoned the run seemingly altogether once their marquee back hit 100 yards. The Gators will need to threaten with both dimensions of the offense to beat the Rebels. But I’m not sure it’ll be enough. I think Mississippi still wins even if you spot Florida a touchdown. I would love to be wrong. But the smart money isn’t on it.
Notre Dame +2.5 at Clemson
I just don’t see how the Tigers are favored. I’ll take ND with a couple of insurance points. It was clear in their game against GT that they are deep and talented. I’m not sure Clemson can survive that onslaught for 4 quarters. The only chance they have is Deshaun Watson finally showing up to his coming out party. He’s been a bundle of potential who has yet to show it. Until he does, I don’t think you can afford to lay points on the Tigers.
There you have it. The ten best picks I could come up with. I’m going 10-0 this week. I can feel it.
Hope springs eternal.