I got killed last week. I went 13-16. That’s two rough weeks in a row. Total now is 33-31-1. Go team. All my analysis and we’re looking at the same results of flipping a coin. I’m reducing the number of picks to 10. I have to stop picking on garbage games. Moderation is key. Anyway, let’s get to this week. These picks are guaranteed* to get better.
Georgia Tech -8.5 at Duke (Under 56.5)
The Jackets looked pitiful against the Irish last week so they will look to bounce back against a lesser foe in the Blue Devils. Duke isn’t the poor team it once was, however. Cutcliffe has that offense rocking. But, there is a nor’easter blowing through the Carolinas this weekend and Duke is a pass heavy team. The storm doesn’t help Tech either as they are also a loose ball team with the option. 56.5 points are way too many, even if the game is close.
NIU +4.5 at Boston College
The Huskies looked great against Ohio State and nearly pulled an upset. They simply got out-athleted (this is now a word, deal with it). Now, they roll into BC to face an defense as good as its offense is bad. The Eagles offense was dreadful against Florida State and couldn’t keep BC in a 7-0 game. Think about that. Despite the stinginess of BC’s defense, I just don’t think that the offense will be able to outscore NIU. Take this on the moneyline, too; I think NIU wins outright.
Tennessee +1.5 at Florida (Under 47.5)
A one and a half point spread doesn’t do anyone any favors. Tennessee and Florida should be pretty evenly matched. Florida’s defense will stand tall and Tennessee will be able to frustrated the Florida attack. There will be lots of punts and very few scores. I see this looking like Florida-Kentucky last week. Take the under, I don’t think it’s close.
Virginia Tech -8.5 at ECU
The Pirates got blown out by a good Navy team which I’m willing to spot at least a touchdown for the triple option. I could see a cover by VT, but I feel more comfortable taking the home team plus the points. Plus, given the expected weather, this game may be sloppy and close.
Louisiana-Monroe at Alabama (Over 55)
This is a pretty good total. I don’t see ULM scoring more than a touchdown; and ordinarily, I wouldn’t see Bama putting up 49 points at home–not because they can’t, just because they don’t need to. Well, Bama got embarrassed at home last week and they’ll be playing pissed. The Tide will be putting up points this week. I’m taking the over here, especially if ULM scores more than once.
TCU -7 at TTU
TCU is not a worthy top 10 team. They have shown that this season so far. Add in the fact that they just had a couple of players suspended for assault and theft of beer and you have a distracted team that let SMU play them tough and keep it close last week. Texas Tech is coming off a big win against Arkansas and are undefeated against the spread this season. I expect this to continue and have an inkling that Kingbury’s boys can win outright.
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (Under 55)
First off, this is a great line for totals, it could go either way. The Rebels now face the very real prospect of being overrated now that they’ve toppled the Tide. And now, they get Vandy at home in the immediate aftermath of that huge road win. Here’s the deal, the ‘Dores defense is exceptional and will be able to hang with Mississippi’s offense. Vandy’s offense couldn’t pour water out of a boot with instructions on the heel, so there’s that. I don’t think Vandy scores much, maybe at all. And I think Mississippi calls off the dogs once the game isn’t competitive.
UCLA -3.5 at Arizona
Two things: UCLA lost its stud all-American linebacker for the year, and Arizona may be getting theirs back. This swing is enough for me to think the Wildcats win outright. Should be a great game, definitely worth it to take the points here considering the visitor is the one who has to lay the points. Watch this one. I thin Zona beats the Bruins.
Mississippi State +1.5 at Auburn
I don’t believe Sean White saves Auburn this weekend. Mississippi State still has Prescott and they are heading into a reasonably even contest against a team who is just a blazing dumpster fire right now. Johnson for Auburn showed that we can’t believe any hype about Tiger quarterbacks this season. Moreover, White wasn’t even starting, so the coaches thought he was worse than JJ. Not sure I trust those coaches to do anything but fail this week. I think Auburn drops another one here. Take the points, I think the wrong team is favored.
Texas A&M -7.5 at Arkansas
The Aggies get a desperate Hog team this weekend. I think Arkansas shows signs of life, but this is just not a good week to play A&M. Arkansas just won’t have an answer for A&M’s defense, and they’re not going to be able to stop the Aggies on offense. I think A&M covers on cruise control. Sorry, Biels.